The People Problem Lab

Exponential Growth

1. Proceed through the tutorial. Answer this question when you reach it: “Approximately when was the bottle half full? “ On the "clock of time," (as I'll refer to it hence forth) the bottle was half full at approximately 12:00

2. Then answer the next question. The next question's answer is 11:59 (first try on both).

3. Did anything surprise you about these two parts? Negative, although it's only due to prior knowledge.

4. “Any time living things are allowed to reproduce freely, their numbers increase exponentially not linearly. And when people talk about "steady growth," they mean exponential growth then, too.” Why do you think people might have trouble understanding exponential growth? I honestly don’t know, the premise of anything exponential has never been very difficult to grasp for me. Unless people simply don't make the connection when they are first introduced to the idea. It could be similar to probability (IE a 5% chance is a 5% chance no matter the repetition of events) in the sense that if you aren't really thinking about it, it can slip right past you. Either that or people deliberately use the term "steady growth," to minimize the presentation of the problem to the general public (always a possibility).

5. Whenever you hear that something is growing by some percentage, or that something is growing steadily, what rule should you remember in order to understand the rate of growth? Explain this rule. The Rule of 70: (which I hadn’t heard of till now) is as follows: you may divide seventy by either growth percent, or doubling time to get the value of one another. 70/x = y where x can be growth or time, and y becomes the opposite value.

6. “When our consumption of a resource (energy, for instance) grows steadily, the doubling time takes on an even scarier meaning.” What is that scarier meaning? The scarier meaning of this (or horrifying, whatever) lay in the fact that we use up more of the finite resources available to us during any given doubling, than were produced in all history prior to that particular time.

7. “…if we keep increasing our energy consumption like this, we'll use more energy in the next 25 years than we've produced ________________________.”      In all of history up to now

8. “There are those who say we don't need to worry about running out of oil, because there's still lots of oil left in the ground. Experts believe that over the past 150 years we have used up about half the total oil on Earth. In other words, our oil supply "bottle" is still half full.” But if we keep doubling our population, what will happen? If we have half way depleted the Earth's total oil reserve up to this point in time, reason dictates that we will use up all the remaining oil over the course of our next doubling (although one would HOPE that we’d be off fossil fuels before then).

The People Paradox Video

About India

1. Compare the education of the residents of north and south India. How does this correlate with the number of children women bear? The residents (especially the women) of northern India tend to be undereducated, and closely policed reproductively (either socially or domestically). These circumstances, combined with gender preferences in children and poverty, typically correlate with high birth rates and excessive family size, which result in a colossal population, which (again usually) propagates the afore mentioned issues.

2. Who are the “gatekeepers to health services” in India? Husbands and Mothers-in-law tend to have more control over the health service of their wives/daughters-in-law than the wives/daughters-in-law do themselves.

3. Why might sons be preferred in India? As is the case historically in many developing countries, there is a pressure to produce sons for socio-status reasons (the antiquated view that passing on one's lineage is only possible through male offspring, which is scientifically just plain silly). In India it's also the case that male offspring are expected to take care of their elderly parents, as there doesn't seem to be any other way to safely retire in India at this time (sons fill this void in elderly care in other words).

4. India demographic pyramid? What implications does this have? Nearly one half of India's age demographic is comprised of individuals under 25 and reaching re-productive age. The obvious risk of having a half re-productive populous is the next generation (potentially) winding up double the size if the paternal pairs don't limit their family to two children (thus replacing themselves in the population and not increasing size and density).

5. Why are daughters often considered a burden in India? Daughters in India tend to be look at as “someone else’s problem / resource.” This is attributed to both their role in the home and, and the fact that parents still arrange marriages in India; which forces the parents of the bride to sweeten deals with cash and goods (that they likely aren't exactly rolling in).

6. How did Abidi Shah change the lives of the young women in the village? Abidi Shah has changed the lives of many young Indian women by teaching them vocation and about their own health. She has also done much to convince them to seek education and better themselves. More importantly (perhaps), she began setting a precedent that the women can in fact work and be a member of a provisioning team.

7. What are the obstacles for women and employment in India? In India, the greatest modern challenge women face in employment (or in general for that matter) is the simple fact that they are tragically undereducated.

8. What is the knife-edge that India sits upon? India is in danger of a population explosion the like of which history has never seen prior. To prevent this, India needs to find a way to hit the 2 child sweet spot or they simply won’t have access to food, water, work, etc.

About Japan

1. What is the “revolutionary change” that is happening in Japan? Japan's revolutionary change is both a social and individual one. Women in Japan have started living their own lives, in a fashion they see fit (imagine that). As a result, women are waiting to have families until the time is right, marrying at higher ages, or skipping family life entirely for professional careers. This naturally leads to greatly decreased birthrates as time, money, and personal freedom are all tossed into the mix when it comes to the decision to settle down or not.

2. If fertility stays at 1.3, Japan’s population will shrink in _________.     half.

3. What are two reasons Japanese women want to work? If they work they can be independent (and they want careers). They do so to keep their family middle class (because kids are stupid expensive in Japan).

4. The newswoman and her family had problems with childcare arrangements. What is the relationship between declining birth rates and childcare? I think this is mainly a matter of having little time. It rains on your child having parade to know that your child will be in daycare 13 hours a day while you work, and are then consequently too tired to sleep (also people tend to really dislike the idea of their kids being raised by strangers).

5. Who cares for elders in Japan? From what I gather from the video, the elderly care for the elderly in Japan (although the government seems to think it should be the daughters / daughter in laws).

6. What does Japan’s age structure look like? Japan's age structure is the exact opposite of India's, the old dramatically out number the youngsters.

7. How might immigration help solve this problem? Japan could knock off the racial/cultural purity garbage and allow legitimate easy immigration. This would increase the number of young workers which means more consumers, which means taxes, which means the government can have money and the elderly can be cared for (not trying to be insensitive to the ethnic Japanese, but seriously, come on guys).

8. What is the average family size worldwide? The average global family size is at or below two children

9. Many countries encourage families to have more children. It has been found to be easier to ______ fertility than to ________ it.     Cut than raise.


Sub-Saharan Africa

1. What does sub-Saharan Africa’s age structure look like? What implications does this have? The population of sub-Saharan Africa is truly unique. It's made up of primarily super young, and their population will double over this century.              2. What situations create tremendous pressures to immigrate?

3. Describe the demographic transition as exemplified in Kenya (starting at 40:21 and in text). In Kenya death rates are rising, not falling. This is primarily due to their willingness to engage in family planning and stuff. It’s totally sweet (joke aside it really is).

4. Death rates from HIV/AIDS life expectancy has declined from 65 to ______years.    49

5. Women in Africa might have to make a choice between ________ and ________. Women if Africa have the unfortunate choice between kids and aids. Really it sounds like it tends to be both, since having kids in a poor community may lead to prostitution to support them, which ultimately leads to AIDS anyway.

6. Explain the how the economic gains of Asian Tigers came about. The "Asian Tigers," are several Asian cultures that have been extraordinarily successful economically. It was a demographic phenomenon, they kept fertility down, invested in their young working people, and profited.

7. The key to population stabilization key is the ____________ and ______________ of women. Education and liberation.

8. Why should we care about other countries? We use the rest of the world as a model for what not to do. Better we observe the mistakes of others than endure all the same hardships they do.

9. What are two things that struck you most strongly about the situations in this video? I found The Rule of 70 interesting, I had no idea that was a thing. Also: I was unpleasantly surprised to hear that jackass Indians are apparently setting women on fire in record number. I probably shouldn't call them jackasses, but seriously, it's 20-effing-14 and people are setting people on fire out of pure disregard for a "lesser being?" Humanity sure does make me sick sometimes.